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System.out.println(Thread.currentThread().getName());[Treo的历史钩沉]桔子下单佣金60Of course psychology—most importantly fear and greed—plays an important role in driving the markets. Most people greedily switch from buying when things are going up to fearfully selling when they are going down. In the late-cycle stage of the short-term debt cycle, once the previously described tightening top is made, the cracks appear. The market movements are like a punch in the face to investors, who never imagined the punch coming, and it changes psychology, which leads to a pulling back and higher risk premiums (i.e., cheaper prices). Typically, the contraction in credit leads to a contraction in demand that is self-reinforcing until the pricing of asset classes and central banks’ policies change to reverse it. That normally happens when demand growth falls to less than capacity growth and there is greater slack in the economy. After central banks ease by several percent (typically about 5%), that changes the expected returns of stocks and bonds to make stocks cheap and it provides stimulation to the economy, which causes stock and other asset prices to rise. For these reasons, it is classically best to buy stocks when the economy is very weak, there is a lot of excess capacity, and interest rates are falling, and to sell stocks when the reverse is the case. Because these cycles happen relatively frequently (every 5-10 years or so), those people who have been around awhile have typically experienced a few of them, so this short-term debt cycle is reasonably well recognized.